Twenty-five military and civil experts from the Member States and EU bodies participate in the first war game on future capabilities in a European framework, organised by the European Defence Agency (EDA) from 4 to 6 June in The Hague.

The aim is to derive conclusions for upcoming European military capability requirements. The war game will be based on four generic scenarios that will cover the full spectrum of possible futures.

“Given the often long timeframes between research, development, acquisition, training and final entry into service of new assets, we need to have a timely understanding of what future capability needs might look like. The war game is one element to support Member States in defining the military capabilities needed for Common Security and Defence Policy operations in the mid to long-term”, said Peter Round, Capabilities Director of the European Defence Agency.

Based on the Agency’s work on future trends in the framework of the Capability Development Plan (CDP), the European Capability Assessment Game or war game will be based on four generic scenarios. These scenarios are not aimed at predicting the most probable future, nor to engage in a discussion about political developments but to test the impact on long-term capability requirements:

1. Classic Case: The global balance of today remains unchanged in a positive and stable way.
2. Aggressive Multi-Polarism: Several more or less equally strong powers compete for power, influence and resources – also by military means.
3. Failing States: An increased number of states are not able to cope with the challenges of globalisation, competition for resources, climate change and other factors.
4. Unconventional Conflicts:  Open military clashes are rare. Power blocks (states) try to undermine each other’s security by supporting for example terrorist or radical opposition groups.

During three days, the 25 experts will crosscheck existing and planned military capabilities against the threats and challenges described in the four scenarios. This will allow them to gain experiences in order to identify decisive points and possible measures to take. Most importantly in the framework of the CDP, they will be able to identify EU’s long-term capability trends in order to timely make the necessary decisions on capability development.

The final results of the war game will be presented to Member States in autumn 2013.